A demographic study points to less growth than expected
LGUSD won't need a new school soon
By Leigh Ann Maze
For now at least, the Los Gatos Union School District will not have to build a new school to house its growing student population. District board members were a bit surprised at the results of a demographic study of the district presented at a board meeting April 4.
The study, done by Lapkoff & Gobalet Demographic Research Inc. of Saratoga, found projected future growth in the district to be less than board members expected.
"I was surprised the student population growth is expected to level off in a few years; it's a little hard to believe," said board member Tom O'Donnell.
The study found that the district experienced a steady increase in students for the last 15 years, and is expected to experience moderate growth for the next five years before stabilizing.
While birth rates in Los Gatos have leveled off, as they have at county and state levels, demographer Jeanne Gobalet credits growth in the district to the tremendous migration to the area.
Migration currently adds about 100 students to the district each year. People moving to the LGUSD either purchase an existing home or move into a newly built home.
Board members and Gobalet were particularly interested in the resale of homes in the district. "Housing turnover has been a major source of district enrollment growth and is important to track," Gobalet said.
In many cases, families with children replace "empty-nest" households. Homes that have sold more recently tend to yield more school-age children.
About 1,670 single family units, or 18 percent of single family housing in the district, sold in the past four years. Another 900 single family homes sold in the past five to nine years. There are currently 1,800 single family homes, or 31 percent of single family housing in the district, that have not resold for 20 years or more.
For every three of these long-held homes that changes ownership, one new student is expected to enter the LGUSD. "If only one quarter of those homes sell, that's a new school. These are things we need to watch very closely," board member Steve Glickman said.
Board members worry that many homeowners see now as the time to sell their homes, with the real estate market doing so well.
For this reason, the demographer has suggested that the board keep its fingers on the pulse of the housing turnover in LGUSD. Should many homes begin to sell, it would mean a greater increase of students in the district, but should the migration recede, the number of students could actually decline, Gobalet said.
The study also looked at three major housing developments built in Los Gatos in the past decade: Ohlone Court, Cuesta De Los Gatos and Almaden Meadows which together house 88 LGUSD students. However, the demographic study did not incorporate potential new housing developments within the district that might add more students, which was a concern raised by Laura Nachison, chairwoman of the Los Gatos Planning Commission.
"Without looking at potential in-fill projects the study is not broad enough, in my opinion, to assess the impact," Nachison said.
While this study will be used to help the LGUSD board make important decisions about the future needs of the district, board members are keeping in mind that demographic studies are not an exact science.
A demographic study done in the early 1980s was influential in the sale of Berry School in 1986. The study could not foresee the economic boom that would hit the area.
The campuses in the LGUSD are overcrowded, and portables have been put up on the playfields, according to Glickman. The district is considering a modernization project, and possibly a bond election in November to alleviate overcrowding and upgrade school facilities. A master plan is being developed for the district, and should be completed by November. The plan will give the district a long-range facilities plan, educational specifications and the cost of such projects. The community will have a chance to comment as the master plan is developed.
"It would be nice to have Berry School now," said O'Donnell. "In hindsight, which is always 20-20, it would have been wiser to lease rather than sell."
Los Gatos, California Since 1881
