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Sales of million-dollar homes statewide slowed slightly during the third quarter according to DataQuick, a real estate information service. Locally the slowdown is showing up in the multi-million dollar market since million dollar homes are considered the average price in certain areas of Silicon Valley.
Median home prices climbed over the million-dollar mark in Los Gatos to $1,298,366, and Saratoga at $1,542,970 for the month of October. The median price means half of the homes sold for more than the amount, while the other half sold for less.
"In Los Gatos and Saratoga, the upper-end market started the year very strongly, but has since lost momentum and will end the year on a somewhat weak note," said Stefan Walker, a Realtor and Broker Associate with Alain Pinel Realtors in Los Gatos.
Since the beginning of the year, there have been 12 properties sold in Los Gatos and Saratoga in excess of $3 million with sales in January, February, June and August. Of the current list of over 50 pending sales, Walker found only one listed for more than $3 million.
"The market in general is ending the year very strongly. The demand remains unusually strong while supply is at record lows countywide for this time of year leading to many, many multiple offer sales. However, the upper-end market has actually been losing steam for some months," Walker said.
Realtor Dennis Byron of Byron and Associates considers $1 million homes to be in the average price range and designates the high-end market as homes starting at $2 million.
"There is a glut of high end homes on the market in Los Gatos, Monte Sereno and Saratoga. Right now there are 126 homes on the market at $2 million or above. Many have been on the market for months and several have been on for years," said Byron who indicated that the rate of homes sold translates into 22 months worth of inventory.
In the $5 million market and above, Byron said there are 17 homes on the market and in the last year only two in that price range have been reported sold.
"Now that you've heard the doom and gloom, I believe the market over the next three or four years will take off. All the indicators are out there for a strong market," Byron said. "I suspect that more buyers will be in the market next year and the inventory will come down making for a balanced market in the high end. Then in the years to follow, barring any economic disasters, the high end market will again come into its own with inventory more in the three to six month range."
According to Broker Associate Mark Oliverez of Alain Pinel Realtors, there is a certain price point that determines whether million dollar homes are selling or sitting.
"My experience is million dollar homes are selling, but the break point before considerable price reduction is between $1.5 and $2 million. In other words, if you are under $1.5 million you may still get your price or better for the right home, though after the $2 million dollar price point the market considerably slows down. While there could be an exception to the rule, the odds of multiple offers or less than 30 to 90 days on the market is slim," Oliverez said.
Realtor Brian Kessler of Intero Real Estate Services in Los Gatos believes the million dollar housing market in Los Gatos and Saratoga is strong up to about $2.5 million, but that the inventory is low with approximately 220 single family homes on the market in the two communities. List prices are ranging from a low of $750,000 to a high of $25 million.
While the number of homes on the market or those with pending sale status changes weekly, inventory and interest rates remain constant and are a key factor in determining sales activity. Realtor John Leslie reports that of the approximately 65 homes in the $1 to $2 million price range in Los Gatos, there are 22 in the pending sale category after 32 days on average on the market.
"The million dollar homes in Los Gatos are selling even now. Generally speaking, homes are moving at the lower price range as one would expect," Leslie said. "As we go through the holidays the sales are expected to slow. We can expect the majority of sellers will relist after New Years and wait again for all those Google millionaires to go shopping."
Leslie thinks the current low interest rates continue to keep the high-end market active. "The inevitable increase in the rates will slow sales and prices will soften," he said.
The Google factor may play a role in a boost in the multi-million home market according to John King of Alhouse King Realty in Palo Alto. "It appears that over the past three months, the number of $2 million plus home sales has at least doubled. Google money has something to do with it but the overall investment market has come back very strong and additional capital is available now for home purchases."
Judy Jarvis Ellis of Alain Pinel Realtors said homes at $2 million and above are selling but buyers for these homes are negotiating strongly no matter the price.
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