Saratoga News

Discrepancies exist in consultant's report

By Dale Evans and Debbi Behrman

Dr. Mike Winters, the consultant hired by the Santa Clara County Office of Education to study the issue of school district organization, has completed his report and is scheduled to present it at a meeting Jan. 7 at 6 p.m. at Lynbrook High School.

We believe it is risky to use Dr. Winters' report without more careful review and examination. Dr. Winters is a consultant, and a consultant is not obligated to represent the public and has no obligation to generate unbiased conclusions.

Dr. Winters previously represented the Moreland Elementary School District (1995) and the Campbell Union Elementary School District (1996). Scrutiny of Dr. Winters' study discloses a significant number of discrepancies.

Dr. Winters makes the statement that "the 13 school districts considered have experienced continuous total enrollment growth from 1989 through 1995" (page 3 of his study). However, this excludes the precipitous decline in enrollment at Los Gatos High School and Saratoga High School that occurred from 1984 to 1989.

In fact, enrollment dropped at LGHS from 2,064 students in 1984 to 1,457 students in 1997 (a 29 percent decrease), and from 1,500 in 1984 to 1,033 in 1997 (a 31 percent decrease) at Saratoga High School. That more representative data series shows the enrollment trend since 1989 to be a "plateau" with statistically insignificant increases.

Elsewhere Dr. Winters acknowledged the broad decline in West Valley student population when he stated, "With declining enrollments from the mid-1970s through the early 1990s, accommodation of interdistrict transfer students posed little or no problem ..." (page 7). Indeed, the Union School District dropped from 10,587 in 1970 to 4,857 in 1997. That's a decline of 54 percent. The Union School District was forced to sell the Parker and Fowler School sites and to close Cinnabar, DeVoss, Howes, Mirassou and Ross. Other West Valley districts also sold or closed schools, including Los Gatos, and the increases since 1989 have not come close to recouping those earlier losses. These decreases occurred even while the total population of Santa Clara County increased dramatically.

A second point of concern is the data used by Dr. Winters to support student enrollment projections. Dr. Winters based his student-population projections on data from the state Allocation Board derived by the "weighted cohort-survival" method (see page 3 and tables on pages 14 through 25). He includes no graphs, definitions, mathematical formulas, or explanatory notes to explain these highly complex charts. Why use this method?

The county Board of Education has traditionally published student population projections using "average" and "weighted average" methods, both of which are easily interpreted. Examination of the enrollment projection for the Los Gatos Elementary School District published in December 1997 shows an upward trend to the end of the century. But a similar projection obtained from Mary Alvord, manager of evaluation and research for the Santa Clara County Board of Education, before the boundary issue was raised shows the same enrollment peaking in 1995, then beginning a gradual downward turn which accelerates toward the end of the century.

It appears that the 1997 version Dr. Winters used is merely a transposition of the countywide trend, not a specific trending for Los Gatos. Furthermore, the Catholic Diocese of San Jose commissioned its own study of the feasibility of a new Catholic high school in South San Jose, and that study determined that while the county's population, along with its student population, will increase significantly through 2010, most of that increase will be in South San Jose, Morgan Hill and Gilroy.

Finally, Dr. Winters did not address the issue of community identity in any meaningful or effective way, but community identity was a key driver behind the study.

Given the conflicting data, one has to ask whether Dr. Winters skewed the data to favor a predetermined conclusion, one favored most by his clients. This appears to be quite likely.

The perception of overcrowding in Los Gatos schools has not been caused exclusively by increased population but also by Gov. Wilson's mandate on class-size reduction. The governor's initiative was a powerful message that he intended to force local communities to raise new revenue for their school facilities. This message has clearly been heard by local school districts, as evidenced by their action in meeting with investment bankers in preparation for bond issues and parcel tax increases. There are then three motives for a selective interpretation of the data: the county Board of Education faces a downsizing with realignment; the administration of the Los Gatos- Saratoga Joint Union High School District fears the boundary dispute will sabotage its planned general obligation bond; and the administration of the Los Gatos Union School District fears the boundary dispute will undermine their plans for an extension of and increase in the special parcel tax.

Their anxiety is understandable; however, we believe complete candor would be the best policy. There is no doubt that California schools, once the best in the nation and now among the worst, need additional revenue sources. We completely support the bond measure and parcel tax increase. Indeed, realignment will increase the bonding capacity and tax base. And broadening the population base is the best insurance against declining student population.

For a more detailed analysis of Dr. Winters' study, and the graphs, data and sources which support this article, see our Old Adobe Neighborhood Web site.

Dale Evans, a resident of Los Gatos for 27 years, has been consulting with residents of the Old Adobe neighborhood in Los Gatos. Debbi Behrman is a Los Gatos resident and a graduate of Los Gatos High School.

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