The Silicon Valley housing market's bubble isn't bursting. Yes it is. No it isn't. Well, it is and it isn't. Sort of.

There are simply too many distinct micro markets to blanket the valley with a single forecast, and trying to call Silicon Valley's larger housing market is like trying to call a winning roulette number. A better wager is to consider your own personal home economics and housing needs—factors over which you have some control.

Here's why. Overall, Silicon Valley's statistics reveal that if you purchased a home at the peak of the market last year in May 2002, when the median price of sold single-family detached homes was a record $578,000, your home now could be worth nearly $30,000 less. In July this year, the median price was $550,000, $28,000 less than the peak price.

If you purchased a home at the onset of the recession in March 2001, when the median price was $565,000, you are luckier—you only lost perhaps $15,000 in value. And, if you purchased your home just nine months later, at the end of the recession in November 2001, the median home price was $498,500 and you could be very lucky—sitting on more than $50,000 in equity right now.

All those numbers from Creekside Realty broker-owner Richard Calhoun's Bay Area Market Newsletter­Santa Clara County are just that—numbers. They provide a general overview of pricing trends for sales in the county's housing market, but they do not reflect what could be going on in your neighborhood.

"The market is made up of many micro markets, and, although it may be called a buyers' market or a sellers' market, there is no guarantee that the house you want to buy won't be sought after by any number of people," according to Elea Raiswell, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker­Saratoga and publisher of The Silicon Valley Real Estate Report.

Or not. "When you look at Saratoga, Los Altos, Monte Sereno, Almaden Valley, and other high-end sales, you can see that homes from around $1.5 million and up have suffered a drop in value," said taxation professional Sam Gilstrap, an enrolled agent and real estate broker in San Jose.

Mary Pope-Handy, with Windermere Silicon Valley Properties in Los Gatos, examined a group of homes all with similar floorplans in San Jose's Cambrian area. The average price of the three-bedroom, 1,249-square-foot floorplan homes rose from $443,666 in 2002 to about $463,000 this year, she said.

"I don't see a whole lot of slipping in value for a typical Cambrian house. I don't trust the median numbers to give a sense of what most homes are doing. I think a better measure is to find the same floorplan in a neighborhood, in approximately the same condition, and track it," Pope-Handy said.

The location scenario plays out so vividly that for the first time in his career Santa Clara County tax assessor Larry Stone lowered assessed values on some homes while raising the assessed values on others.

"If we segment the total market we have a better understanding of the picture," says Mike Donohoe, president of the Santa Clara County Association of Realtors.

"It's kind of like the affordability statistic, you know, 'only 28 percent can afford the median-priced home,' and people take that to mean only 28 percent can afford a home in a given area," said Donohoe, also a mortgage broker and owner of Silver Creek Financial in San Jose.

In addition to scrutinizing local markets, buyers should not neglect to consider household economics.

"Prospective buyers should compare the after-tax monthly cost to purchase a given home to the cost of renting that same home. The cost of owning versus renting a home can tell you whether home prices may be overvalued (the cost of owning is much more than renting) or a fair value (cost of owning is about the same)," said Eric Tyson, a financial advisor and author of "Dummies" guides on buying, selling, mortgages and investments.

Real estate writer Broderick Perkins, executive editor of San Jose-based DeadlineNews.Com, writes regularly for
Saratoga News.